Honestly speaking, it will not be a perfect analysis and the true reflection to use electoral victory in the traditional strongholds of a political party to determine its popularity and national acceptability.
Ahead of 2024 general election, the New Patriotic Party(NPP) has a lot of work to do to overcome Voter's Apathy especially in their traditional strongholds if indeed the NPP is really serious about breaking the established convention of 8year cycle of change of Government since 1992 under the 4th Republican Constitution.
The outcome of Kumawu's by-election is both a win and lessons to the Government of the New Patriotic Party.
As for traditional strongholds, the performance of Government and the state of the economy have NO role to play in winning an election as the rationality of voters in assessing the performance of a political party is already biased. Always the Swing Regions largely determined the faith of any Government.
NPP has won the Kumawu by-election but with poor outcomes.
The candidate was able to increase the real vote margins by only 304 votes when compared to the 2020 Parliamentary Results(15,264-14,960=304 Votes).
The NDC candidate was able to increase the real votes margins by 1,284 votes when compared to the 2020 Parliamentary Results(3, 723-2, 439=1,284 votes).
Considering the level of resources and strategies committed by both Akufo-Addo's Government and the NPP Machinery in the just-ended Kumawu By-election though the NPP Parliamentary Candidate has won with 70.91%, the result is very disappointing and discouraging in terms of the real votes garnered by NPP.
In the 2020 general election, there were some issues in the Kumawu Constituency resulting in an Independent candidacy of Mr. Kwaku Duah who polled 11, 698 votes while Mr. Philip Basoah(NPP Candidate) and Mr. Bernard Opoku Marfo(NDC Candidate) respectively polled 14,960 votes(51.11%) and 2, 439 votes(8.33%) respectively.
However, ahead of the 2023 by-election, a lot of well-thought-out strategies were implemented by the NPP coupled with resources to neutralized the electoral strength of Mr. Kwaku Duah, the 2020 independent candidate who was previously a well-known member of the NPP. The strategies and resources worked to reduced his votes from 11,698 in 2020 to 2,478 votes in the just-ended by-election( a loss by 9,220 Votes). However, the NPP failed miserably to attract even half of the 9,220 votes that were lost by Kwaku Duah. Out of the 9,220 Votes, NPP managed to gets only 304 votes in addition to the 14,960 votes that the Party had in the 2020 Parliamentary elections.
Below are the Historical Data for Parliamentary Elections Results in Kumawu Constituency Between NPP and NDC:
1. Reo Addai Basoah(NPP)--15,025 Votes(49.6%)
2. Jargisu Ibrahim(NDC) - - 9,354 Votes(30.9%)
1. Reo Addai Basoah(NPP) - - 13, 554 Votes(57.8%)
2. Opanin Kwame Adu(NDC) - - 6,057 Votes(25.8%)
1. Yaw Baah(NPP) - - 19,223 Votes(70%)
2. George Amankwaa(NDC) - - 5,680 Votes(20.7%)
1. Yaw Baah(NPP) - - 15, 217 Votes(56.38%)
2. Dominic Oteng(NDC) - - 7,120 Votes(26.38%)
1. Philip Basoah(NPP)-- 18,858 Votes(68.96%)
2. Asiamah Samuel(NDC) - - 4,142 Votes(15.15%)
1. Philip Basoah(NPP) - - 21, 794 Votes(78.17%)
2. Emmanuel William Amoako(NDC) - - 5,899 Votes(21.16%)
1. Philip Basoah(NPP) - - 14,960 Votes(51.11%)
2. Kwaku Duah(Independent Candidate) - - 11,698 Votes(39.96%)
3. Bernard Opoku Marfo(NDC) - - 2,439 Votes(8.33%)
1. Ernest Yaw Anim(NPP) - - 15, 264 Votes(70.91%)
2. Kwasi Amankwaa(NDC) - - 3,723 Votes(17.29%)
3. Kwaku Duah(Independent Candidate 2020/2023)--2, 478 Votes(11.51%)
4. Kwaku Duah(Alleged NPP Sponsored Independent Candidate) - - 62 Votes(00.29%)
The seriousness of the attention that NPP leadership and Akufo-Addo's Government gave to the Kumawu by-election was far ahead of that of the NDC who perhaps thought it would be a difficult task to win in such a stronghold of NPP just like the same way NPP might commit less attention and resources to Ketu North Constituency if there is a by-election.
The members of NPP have a lot of work to do ahead of the 2024 general election because Voter's Apathy may be a major setback to the victory of NPP.